THE END OF THE LINE FOR THE 747
Since the fuel crisis, even the latest 747-400’s are being grounded by many airlines. In the bankruptcy, Japan Air Lines with one of the largest 747 fleets has announced that all forty-seven in the passenger fleet will be left with the Bankruptcy Trustee for him to dispose of. On strongly patronized long route flights the A 380 is rapidly becoming the aircraft of choice and many carriers are placing their faith in the versatility of the 787 as the aircraft of choice to dominate their fleets. Air New Zealand for example was the first carrier to fly a 747-400 straight to the desert for scrapping and as each new 777 arrives the same fate awaits the remaining 747’s. Previously 747’s were converted to freighters but the forecast for the cargo business remains flat at best for the next five years at least.
The response from Boeing to rival Airbus when they announced they were moving forward with the A 380 was to upgrade the 747 to an 800 series. As of this month there were options on only thirty-two of the passenger version but seventy-six for the freighter configuration, almost making it a loss making venture for Boeing. It is interesting to note that some freighter operators, led by Cargolux, are looking at ensuring any replacement aircraft are new rather than conversions. With possible cancelations on the passenger 747-800, it looks like the 747 will go the way of the MD 11. In the last five years of MD 11 production all aircraft delivered were freighters.
I started in the business about the same time as Pan Am started flying the 747 to New Zealand. I have always been in awe that such a huge machine could actually fly. It is sad that starting with the “new” JAL, a mega international carrier, that the 747 will slowly fade from the skies because most carriers will undoubtedly follow Air New Zealand’s choice of scrapping the redundant aircraft rather than find buyers. To think it was 747 which transformed the airline business to move passengers in “bulk” which in turn led to pricing that allowed working class families to enjoy overseas travel at Greyhound bus prices.
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