The response from Boeing to rival Airbus when they announced they were moving forward with the A 380 was to upgrade the 747 to an 800 series. As of this month there were options on only thirty-two of the passenger version but seventy-six for the freighter configuration, almost making it a loss making venture for Boeing. It is interesting to note that some freighter operators, led by Cargolux, are looking at ensuring any replacement aircraft are new rather than conversions. With possible cancelations on the passenger 747-800, it looks like the 747 will go the way of the MD 11. In the last five years of MD 11 production all aircraft delivered were freighters.

I started in the business about the same time as Pan Am started flying the 747 to New Zealand. I have always been in awe that such a huge machine could actually fly. It is sad that starting with the “new” JAL, a mega international carrier, that the 747 will slowly fade from the skies because most carriers will undoubtedly follow Air New Zealand’s choice of scrapping the redundant aircraft rather than find buyers. To think it was 747 which transformed the airline business to move passengers in “bulk” which in turn led to pricing that allowed working class families to enjoy overseas travel at Greyhound bus prices.

Rates are still continuing to tank and even the measures many airlines have already taken, some of the weak may well end up in the hanger in the sky sooner rather than later. The fact is trade may never be the same again as most countries’ own preservation requires them to look after their own best interests rather than do the touchy-touchy/feely-feely thing and handle this recession globally. Our tax revenues continue to shrink as companies move into huge losses and millions more people start claiming unemployment benefits. Funny isn’t it, the government is hell bent in throwing good money after bad at the finance industry while holding the big three auto manufacturers to ransom thus forcing millions of additional Americans from Main Street to join the dole queues?

When the world finally settles down, I think India and China’s will have a diminishing role in the new global economy that will evolve However my prediction is there will be huge two way trade between western countries. This bodes well for the airlines, because they can truly flourish if their bellies are full on the outward journey and well as the inbound. For the last fifteen years trade has been one way a very unhealthy situation for them.

What is killing off the old 747′s and DC 10′s is they are gas guzzlers and their yields and payloads are inferior to the MD 11′s and 747-400′s. As airlines upgrade their fleets, there aren’t too many Connie Kalitta’s left, who will take on these tired old aircraft because the maintenance and running costs now make it totally uneconomic to fly them.