I liken it to how our industry: once universities saw an opportunity to become involved we were “morphed” from being simple freight forwarders moving boxes from point A to point B to where today just about every forwarding company has the word logistics in their company name! Warehousing and distribution which perfectly describes its purpose has for the last twenty years been known as 3PL or 4PL! I am not denying technology has made transportation a little more sophisticated from those not so long ago days when all the forwarder needed to be in the business was a small warehouse, a truck, forklift and a pokey little office, with a couple of phone lines, desks, a telex machine. The only difference today; the computer and all its accoutrements!

Thirty years ago the measuring rods for determining the state of the economy were pretty simple. First and foremost were the unemployment numbers, secondly international trade, thirdly savings and maybe fourthly inflation. Today’s economists claim we have mastered the ability to contain inflation (over the last fifteen years lower wages for the masses and cheap junk from China) so that no longer becomes a factor, in-balance of trade has become no concern for economists even though our trade with China is 6-1 in their favor, economists today care little about more consumer debt created by unbridled spending, leaving only unemployment as a factor of old in measuring the state of the economy.

Here is my list of indicators that I believe matters in knowing where the economy stands;

• Unemployment
• GDP growth
• Airline passenger numbers
• Hotel occupancy rates
• Home foreclosures
• Retail sales
• Advertising sales
• International trade by volume and value
• Car sales
• Bank lending

The above is pretty basic stuff and if those ten factors were used to determine the state of the nation then the simple answer to, “Are we out of the recession yet?” would be an unequivocal “NO!” When will we ever return to the good old days? Not for many years to come is my prognosis. But who am I? A simple bloke who managed to finish high school, failed at University and has spent a lifetime trying to succeed but never being able to declare himself a winner.

Yes, thanks to this global recession perpetrated by Wall Street and China’s rise as a world power, the world has moved to the lowest common denominator. Once we used to laugh at third world countries with their domestic fleet of ancient dilapidated old aircraft, with natives herded into the mains cabin to be seated like sardines in a can and come 2009, Americans will be treated no differently. Yes, we have come a long way from those pre World War Two Pan Am Clipper Class seaplanes where the entire meal was prepared on board and every passenger was waited upon and treated as royalty. Mind you in those days the waiters were called Flight Hostesses. Today we know them as Cabin Attendants!

We will just have to get used to the fact this country is downsizing and downsizing means so many things we took as granted, like the option to fly better than coach class has been taken away from us. I happen to like a 500 horse power V8 under my hood, but if Pelosi gets her way, within five years we will be just like those poor miserable inhabitants of France driving around in Peugeot, Citroen, Renault and Mercedes Benz two seater A Cars or more likely foreign-made electric golf carts. Just like the wealthy women of New York a few years back had to stop wearing their fur coats for fear of being attacked by paint bombers, I suppose I will have to get used to the risk of those loony greenies vandalizing my American-made “gas guzzling” Pontiac G8 as Pelosi, Barney Frank and their smoked salmon socialist buddies outlaw what was part of my American dream; to be able to drive a car with some grunt!

This year’s get together covers every topic imaginable and it certainly will be interesting to listen to the views from such a wide variety of industry experts. As far as the airlines are concerned the only topic not on the agenda is how most carriers have retreated from regarding airfreight as a serious component of their structure. For me, barring a very few airlines, over the past fifteen years most airline CEO’s have used the surgeon’s scalpel on their air cargo divisions to the point they are unrecognizable from twenty years ago. Sales and service personnel have been slashed and in many instances cargo handling outsourced to independent contractors even at large airports such as Los Angeles. In the meantime, IATA ambitiously moves forward promoting Cargo 2000 and complicated supply chain theories when many of their members operations are returning to the “stone ages”!

On the one hand we have most IATA airline members who couldn’t care less about cargo, but on the other, forwarders/shippers who have never enjoyed such low rates for such a long period of time. I suppose it is all about getting what you pay for. However in saying that, when will we see a return to airlines treating cargo seriously with an upswing in real investment and a compensatory rating structure to match? I notice at this year’s “Symposium” every subject under the sun is being discussed except the issue of the real future of airfreight as far as most passenger/combination carriers are concerned.